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【行業(ye)關注】洞察(cha)鋰電回收 產業(ye)鏈圖譜(pu)全解

2022年12月15日(ri)(ri)至(zhi)16日(ri)(ri)的(de)中(zhong)央(yang)經(jing)濟工(gong)作(zuo)會議把擴(kuo)大(da)內(nei)需(xu)作(zuo)為(wei)五大(da)任(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)務之首，其(qi)中(zhong)支持新能源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)消費(fei)是擴(kuo)大(da)內(nei)需(xu)的(de)重大(da)舉(ju)措(cuo)。動(dong)(dong)力(li)電(dian)池(chi)(chi)回(hui)收(shou)作(zuo)為(wei)新能源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)消費(fei)鏈(lian)條的(de)末端環節(jie)，受其(qi)景氣度(du)傳導(dao)，發(fa)展至(zhi)今(jin)已經(jing)進(jin)入(ru)規范化發(fa)展階(jie)段。其(qi)核心(xin)要點(dian)(dian)在于(yu)(yu)建立生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)者責(ze)(ze)任(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)延伸制度(du)，規范回(hui)收(shou)利用標準體(ti)系，從2021年工(gong)信(xin)部等部門(men)《關于(yu)(yu)印發(fa)汽(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)產(chan)品(pin)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)者責(ze)(ze)任(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)延伸試點(dian)(dian)實施(shi)方(fang)案的(de)通知(zhi)》（工(gong)信(xin)部聯節(jie)函〔2021〕129號）的(de)文(wen)件(jian)來看(kan)，動(dong)(dong)力(li)電(dian)池(chi)(chi)回(hui)收(shou)的(de)責(ze)(ze)任(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)主(zhu)體(ti)不僅僅局限為(wei)汽(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)企(qi)業，報(bao)廢機動(dong)(dong)車(che)(che)回(hui)收(shou)拆解(jie)企(qi)業、資源(yuan)(yuan)綜合利用企(qi)業也(ye)都是動(dong)(dong)力(li)電(dian)池(chi)(chi)回(hui)收(shou)的(de)責(ze)(ze)任(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)主(zhu)體(ti)，必(bi)須按照有關規定履行回(hui)收(shou)利用溯源(yuan)(yuan)管(guan)理(li)(li)主(zhu)體(ti)責(ze)(ze)任(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)。工(gong)信(xin)部指出(chu)：下(xia)一步(bu)的(de)重點(dian)(dian)工(gong)作(zuo)是協(xie)同(tong)推進(jin)充(chong)換電(dian)基礎設施(shi)建設，盡快研制出(chu)《新能源(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)動(dong)(dong)力(li)蓄電(dian)池(chi)(chi)回(hui)收(shou)利用管(guan)理(li)(li)辦(ban)法》，確定國(guo)家標準和行業標準，我們認為(wei)動(dong)(dong)力(li)電(dian)池(chi)(chi)回(hui)收(shou)未來可期(qi)。天風證券預(yu)計，2030年我國(guo)動(dong)(dong)力(li)電(dian)池(chi)(chi)總退役量有望(wang)達(da)(da)到304.24萬噸，2021-2030年復合增長率將近50%。中(zhong)性預(yu)期(qi)下(xia)，預(yu)計2030年我國(guo)動(dong)(dong)力(li)電(dian)池(chi)(chi)回(hui)收(shou)市場規模有望(wang)達(da)(da)758.4億元，2021-2030年復合增長率高達(da)(da)58.1%。

一、概念界定

參考《電(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)汽車安(an)全(quan)性指(zhi)(zhi)南（2021版）》，動(dong)(dong)力(li)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)回(hui)收(shou)指(zhi)(zhi)對(dui)廢舊(jiu)動(dong)(dong)力(li)蓄(xu)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)收(shou)集、分類、貯(zhu)存(cun)和運輸的(de)過程(cheng)總(zong)稱。動(dong)(dong)力(li)蓄(xu)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)包括鋰(li)離子動(dong)(dong)力(li)蓄(xu)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)、金屬(shu)氫化物(wu)/鎳動(dong)(dong)力(li)蓄(xu)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)，不含鉛(qian)酸(suan)蓄(xu)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)，本文的(de)研究對(dui)象為(wei)鋰(li)離子動(dong)(dong)力(li)蓄(xu)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)，主要是磷酸(suan)鐵鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)和三(san)元(yuan)鋰(li)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)，目前回(hui)收(shou)利用工(gong)藝(yi)有濕(shi)法(fa)、干法(fa)、生物(wu)法(fa)，濕(shi)法(fa)憑(ping)借金屬(shu)材(cai)料(liao)回(hui)收(shou)率和純度較高的(de)優勢(shi)逐漸成為(wei)主流工(gong)藝(yi)。

表1 集中(zhong)式與分布(bu)式光伏電(dian)站對比(bi)

二、行業(ye)發展(zhan)現狀

1、擴大內需政策背景下，新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)(che)(che)需求旺盛，帶動退役動力(li)電(dian)池(chi)(chi)數(shu)量(liang)(liang)大幅(fu)增長，動力(li)電(dian)池(chi)(chi)回收市場(chang)規(gui)模爆(bao)發。據中汽(qi)(qi)(qi)協數(shu)據顯示，2014-2021年(nian)新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)(che)(che)銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)從7.48萬輛(liang)增加至352.10萬輛(liang)，平均增速(su)高(gao)達125%。其(qi)中，在(zai)2018年(nian)新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)(che)(che)銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)首次躍升百萬，增幅(fu)61.65%，按照動力(li)電(dian)池(chi)(chi)5-8年(nian)的使用壽命計算，2023-2026年(nian)動力(li)電(dian)池(chi)(chi)迎來百萬級別退役高(gao)峰期。根據我國燃油車(che)(che)(che)(che)退出時間表：2050年(nian)前全面實現新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)化，傳統燃油車(che)(che)(che)(che)將全面退出。我們認為，全面新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)化后，汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)(che)(che)電(dian)動化勢(shi)不可擋，新能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)汽(qi)(qi)(qi)車(che)(che)(che)(che)的可持續性(xing)增長較(jiao)強，受其(qi)景氣度傳導，可以(yi)預見未(wei)來十(shi)年(nian)，退役動力(li)電(dian)池(chi)(chi)數(shu)量(liang)(liang)可觀，疊加電(dian)池(chi)(chi)金屬材料(liao)的稀(xi)缺性(xing)，動力(li)電(dian)池(chi)(chi)回收行(xing)業將進入(ru)爆(bao)發期。

2、高鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie)低(di)鈷(gu)趨(qu)勢(shi)下，動力(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)回(hui)(hui)收(shou)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)出(chu)的(de)(de)鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie)金(jin)(jin)屬(shu)材(cai)(cai)(cai)料(liao)(liao)(liao)供不應求(qiu)。廢舊動力(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)回(hui)(hui)收(shou)經(jing)再生(sheng)利用后(hou)，可(ke)獲得鋰、鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie)、鈷(gu)、錳(meng)等金(jin)(jin)屬(shu)材(cai)(cai)(cai)料(liao)(liao)(liao)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)出(chu)物(wu)，主要供向動力(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)材(cai)(cai)(cai)料(liao)(liao)(liao)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)企(qi)(qi)業、電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)企(qi)(qi)業、汽車生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)企(qi)(qi)業。產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)出(chu)物(wu)中，鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie)、鈷(gu)是三元(yuan)(yuan)鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)的(de)(de)重要材(cai)(cai)(cai)料(liao)(liao)(liao)，同時(shi)又是稀缺金(jin)(jin)屬(shu)材(cai)(cai)(cai)料(liao)(liao)(liao)，但近(jin)幾年，鈷(gu)價(jia)水(shui)漲船高，僅(jin)鈷(gu)的(de)(de)材(cai)(cai)(cai)料(liao)(liao)(liao)成(cheng)本就占整(zheng)車生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)成(cheng)本的(de)(de)20%（動力(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)成(cheng)本約(yue)為(wei)(wei)40%），極大地壓縮了(le)利潤空(kong)間。同時(shi)，鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie)價(jia)保持(chi)相對(dui)穩定，鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie)含(han)量(liang)又決(jue)定了(le)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)的(de)(de)續(xu)航能(neng)力(li)(li)和比(bi)(bi)容(rong)性(xing)，這(zhe)與動力(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)長續(xu)航、高能(neng)量(liang)密度(du)的(de)(de)技術升級相契(qi)合。因此，為(wei)(wei)了(le)降低(di)鈷(gu)價(jia)震蕩(dang)帶來(lai)的(de)(de)影響(xiang)，契(qi)合生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)技術變革，高鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie)低(di)鈷(gu)已成(cheng)未來(lai)發展趨(qu)勢(shi)，可(ke)以預見電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)材(cai)(cai)(cai)料(liao)(liao)(liao)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)企(qi)(qi)業、電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)企(qi)(qi)業、汽車生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)企(qi)(qi)業對(dui)鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie)的(de)(de)需求(qiu)將攀(pan)升。但從(cong)預測的(de)(de)動力(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)回(hui)(hui)收(shou)量(liang)來(lai)看，鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie)的(de)(de)回(hui)(hui)收(shou)拆解(jie)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)出(chu)供給暫不能(neng)滿足(zu)攀(pan)升的(de)(de)需求(qiu)，高工產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)業研究院(yuan)（GGII）預計：到(dao)2025年，我國回(hui)(hui)收(shou)的(de)(de)廢舊動力(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)將達到(dao)96萬(wan)噸(dun)，通過回(hui)(hui)收(shou)動力(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)拆解(jie)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)出(chu)鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie)占相應需求(qiu)量(liang)的(de)(de)28.70%，即市場對(dui)回(hui)(hui)收(shou)動力(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)拆解(jie)產(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)(chan)出(chu)的(de)(de)鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie)需求(qiu)約(yue)為(wei)(wei)13.12萬(wan)噸(dun)。而按照鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie)在三元(yuan)(yuan)鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)中12%的(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)重，98%的(de)(de)回(hui)(hui)收(shou)率1 ，即使(shi)96萬(wan)噸(dun)的(de)(de)廢舊動力(li)(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)均為(wei)(wei)三元(yuan)(yuan)鋰電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)，也僅(jin)能(neng)供給11.29萬(wan)噸(dun)的(de)(de)鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie)金(jin)(jin)屬(shu)材(cai)(cai)(cai)料(liao)(liao)(liao)，仍(reng)有1.83萬(wan)噸(dun)的(de)(de)需求(qiu)缺口。隨著鎳(nie)(nie)(nie)(nie)需求(qiu)攀(pan)升，該缺口可(ke)能(neng)持(chi)續(xu)擴大。

3、劣幣(bi)(bi)驅逐良幣(bi)(bi)甚(shen)囂塵上，白名(ming)(ming)單(dan)(dan)擴(kuo)(kuo)圍(wei)緊(jin)鑼密(mi)鼓進行(xing)中。當(dang)前動(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)回收的(de)(de)玩(wan)家(jia)主要有五(wu)類：電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)材(cai)料(liao)生(sheng)產(chan)企業(ye)(ye)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)生(sheng)產(chan)企業(ye)(ye)、汽車生(sheng)產(chan)企業(ye)(ye)、第三方機構或企業(ye)(ye)、環保(bao)企業(ye)(ye)，這(zhe)五(wu)類主體涵蓋工(gong)信(xin)部公布的(de)(de)新能源汽車廢舊動(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)白名(ming)(ming)單(dan)(dan)企業(ye)(ye)，以(yi)及白名(ming)(ming)單(dan)(dan)之外的(de)(de)“黑作(zuo)坊(fang)”。目前行(xing)業(ye)(ye)大部分玩(wan)家(jia)以(yi)“黑作(zuo)坊(fang)”為主，企查查數據顯示，僅2021年我國動(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)回收企業(ye)(ye)數量達4.06萬家(jia)，同比增長229.5%，近半數為規模500萬以(yi)下的(de)(de)小型企業(ye)(ye)；他們以(yi)放棄環保(bao)為代價，高價回收了市場(chang)上80%的(de)(de)退(tui)役動(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)，無序競(jing)爭(zheng)導致白名(ming)(ming)單(dan)(dan)企業(ye)(ye)無電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)可收，致使行(xing)業(ye)(ye)呈現小、散、亂的(de)(de)競(jing)爭(zheng)格(ge)局。工(gong)信(xin)部正(zheng)緊(jin)鑼密(mi)鼓地開展(zhan)白名(ming)(ming)單(dan)(dan)擴(kuo)(kuo)圍(wei)工(gong)作(zuo)中，2022年11月，工(gong)信(xin)部就第四(si)批(pi)動(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)回收白名(ming)(ming)單(dan)(dan)企業(ye)(ye)公開征求意見，本批(pi)白名(ming)(ming)單(dan)(dan)共41家(jia)企業(ye)(ye)在列，若公告(gao)無異議，疊加(jia)此前三批(pi)名(ming)(ming)單(dan)(dan)，國內動(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)回收白名(ming)(ming)單(dan)(dan)企業(ye)(ye)共86家(jia)，行(xing)業(ye)(ye)“正(zheng)規軍”再擴(kuo)(kuo)容(rong)。未(wei)來“黑作(zuo)坊(fang)”或將(jiang)隨著行(xing)業(ye)(ye)規范(fan)化而(er)被整合或退(tui)出(chu)，白名(ming)(ming)單(dan)(dan)企業(ye)(ye)將(jiang)能憑借先(xian)進技術(shu)和規范(fan)性(xing)而(er)擴(kuo)(kuo)大市場(chang)。

三、產業鏈(lian)圖譜

動(dong)力(li)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)回收(shou)上(shang)游(you)(you)是(shi)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)制造及使用(yong)(yong)(yong)，中(zhong)游(you)(you)是(shi)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)回收(shou)，下游(you)(you)是(shi)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)。其中(zhong)（1）上(shang)游(you)(you)競爭格(ge)(ge)(ge)局(ju)穩定(ding)，龍頭企業(ye)占(zhan)據半壁(bi)江山(shan)，2021年CR5為83.4%，受原料(liao)價格(ge)(ge)(ge)暴漲影(ying)響，利(li)(li)潤空(kong)間(jian)承壓，上(shang)游(you)(you)企業(ye)積極布局(ju)中(zhong)下游(you)(you)以減緩原料(liao)價格(ge)(ge)(ge)波動(dong)帶來的(de)震蕩(dang)。（2）中(zhong)游(you)(you)競爭激烈，多方資本入局(ju)，市(shi)場集(ji)(ji)中(zhong)度較低，小、散、亂(luan)的(de)市(shi)場格(ge)(ge)(ge)局(ju)亟待規范，未來兼并收(shou)購有利(li)(li)于(yu)提高(gao)(gao)(gao)市(shi)場集(ji)(ji)中(zhong)度，產(chan)(chan)業(ye)鏈(lian)合作有利(li)(li)于(yu)打造“電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)生產(chan)(chan)-電(dian)(dian)車生產(chan)(chan)-電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)回收(shou)-電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)生產(chan)(chan)”的(de)回收(shou)閉環，進(jin)一步提高(gao)(gao)(gao)行業(ye)集(ji)(ji)中(zhong)度。（3）下游(you)(you)可(ke)分(fen)為梯(ti)次利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)、再生利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)，梯(ti)次利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)適用(yong)(yong)(yong)于(yu)電(dian)(dian)容量介于(yu)20%-80%之間(jian)的(de)動(dong)力(li)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)，當(dang)前尚處于(yu)商業(ye)化探索階段(duan)，技(ji)術壁(bi)壘較高(gao)(gao)(gao)，標準體系也不明確(que)，目前僅有少數企業(ye)參(can)與試點；再生利(li)(li)用(yong)(yong)(yong)適用(yong)(yong)(yong)于(yu)電(dian)(dian)容量低于(yu)20%的(de)動(dong)力(li)電(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)(chi)，工藝成(cheng)熟，應(ying)用(yong)(yong)(yong)廣泛，是(shi)當(dang)前的(de)主要競爭領域。

（來源(yuan)：南京卓(zhuo)遠研究(jiu)中心）