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歐(ou)陽明高：汽車(che)產業轉型(xing)陣痛(tong)與新能源汽車(che)高質量(liang)發展路徑

中國新(xin)能(neng)源汽車(che)發(fa)展(zhan)歷程

2001年，我國啟動了電(dian)動汽(qi)車重大(da)科技專項，主(zhu)攻目標就(jiu)是(shi)新能源(yuan)動力系統，包括純電(dian)動汽(qi)車、油電(dian)混合動力電(dian)動汽(qi)車和燃料電(dian)池電(dian)動汽(qi)車。

2005年，《國家中(zhong)長(chang)期科學(xue)和(he)技術發展(zhan)規劃綱要》確立了節能(neng)與新能(neng)源汽車科技戰略(lve)，即(ji)轉型戰略(lve)和(he)過(guo)渡戰略(lve)。我們(men)現在過(guo)渡還在進(jin)行，轉型還沒有完成。

2008年，我國成功開(kai)展(zhan)了北京(jing)奧運新(xin)能源汽(qi)車科技示范工程，是一個標志性的(de)里程碑，標志著新(xin)能源汽(qi)車產業進入(ru)了示范和產業化階段。

在“十二五”規劃選擇(ze)產業(ye)化路(lu)(lu)徑的(de)時(shi)候，我們選擇(ze)了(le)純電(dian)驅動(dong)作為新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)汽(qi)車(che)主導技術路(lu)(lu)線。國務院發(fa)(fa)布的(de)《節能(neng)(neng)與新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)汽(qi)車(che)產業(ye)發(fa)(fa)展規劃》中明確提出(chu)要推行純電(dian)驅動(dong)技術轉型。

在(zai)國(guo)外，以豐田為(wei)代表的(de)發動機優先戰略，是從燃(ran)(ran)油車(che)(che)到(dao)混合動力車(che)(che)，再到(dao)燃(ran)(ran)料電(dian)池(chi)車(che)(che)。我國(guo)是反(fan)過來，以鋰離子電(dian)池(chi)和純電(dian)動為(wei)平臺，帶動各(ge)種新能(neng)源汽車(che)(che)的(de)全方位發展，這是根據中國(guo)的(de)國(guo)情和技術(shu)基礎(chu)做的(de)基本判斷。

在市場推(tui)廣方面我們提出了(le)“兩(liang)(liang)頭擠”的(de)推(tui)進戰略，從大客車(che)和(he)(he)微型(xing)車(che)擠入(ru)(ru)常規(gui)轎(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)車(che)市場。這(zhe)個(ge)過程中(zhong)，公共領域車(che)輛尤(you)其是公交大客車(che)對帶動動力電(dian)池的(de)技術(shu)進步和(he)(he)產業成熟起(qi)到了(le)巨(ju)大的(de)推(tui)動作用，然后(hou)就逐步進入(ru)(ru)了(le)轎(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)車(che)。現(xian)在在轎(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)車(che)車(che)型(xing)中(zhong)也(ye)完成了(le)“兩(liang)(liang)頭擠”，也(ye)就是高檔轎(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)車(che)和(he)(he)經(jing)濟型(xing)轎(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)車(che)到中(zhong)級主(zhu)流轎(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)車(che)的(de)“兩(liang)(liang)頭擠”。現(xian)在新能(neng)源是全車(che)型(xing)覆蓋(gai)，全車(che)型(xing)暢銷。

2014年，習主席發出號召，提出了新(xin)能(neng)源汽車強國戰略。從此中國新(xin)能(neng)源汽車產業化進入快速發展階段。

2016年(nian)是全球純電(dian)驅動技術(shu)轉(zhuan)型(xing)的標志性年(nian)份，國(guo)(guo)際(ji)企業紛紛加(jia)快純電(dian)驅動轉(zhuan)型(xing)戰略(lve)，加(jia)速在(zai)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)市場布(bu)局。這一年(nian)新能源汽車在(zai)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)產銷量(liang)已(yi)經超過50萬輛。

總結一下，2012年(nian)—2022年(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)國純電驅動汽車從1萬輛到(dao)680萬輛，動力電池從100Wh/kg上升到(dao)300Wh/kg，成本從瓦時5元(yuan)降到(dao)1元(yuan)以內。這都是在10年(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)發生的巨大變化，從而使我們引領了全球。

新(xin)能源汽車(che)產(chan)業處(chu)于深度轉型陣痛(tong)期

現(xian)在進入(ru)了(le)2023年，我們又進入(ru)一個新的陣痛(tong)(tong)期，新能源汽車(che)革命與汽車(che)產業深度轉型的陣痛(tong)(tong)期，包括：

1、整車(che)(che)(che)(che)價格競爭與汽車(che)(che)(che)(che)產業鏈的轉型陣痛。新(xin)能源汽車(che)(che)(che)(che)全面在(zai)擠壓(ya)燃油車(che)(che)(che)(che)市場，新(xin)能源汽車(che)(che)(che)(che)市場是(shi)從燃油車(che)(che)(che)(che)拿來的，燃油車(che)(che)(che)(che)全產業鏈承壓(ya)，新(xin)舊競爭拉開(kai)了“遼沈戰役”式(shi)的決戰序幕(mu)，還沒到“淮海戰役”。

總體看，新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源車是(shi)快增(zeng)長(chang)、缺(que)利潤，燃(ran)油車缺(que)增(zeng)長(chang)、但還有利潤。新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源車的(de)(de)成本(ben)仍然高于燃(ran)油車，但其品(pin)牌和影響力溢(yi)價在上升。同(tong)時(shi)合資(zi)燃(ran)油車的(de)(de)品(pin)牌溢(yi)價在下(xia)降，現在高品(pin)質的(de)(de)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源車可以與合資(zi)的(de)(de)燃(ran)油車價格競爭(zheng)，但成本(ben)還不(bu)能(neng)(neng)競爭(zheng)。同(tong)時(shi)，新(xin)(xin)能(neng)(neng)源車陣(zhen)營的(de)(de)不(bu)斷擴(kuo)大，你追我趕，競爭(zheng)進入了陣(zhen)地戰階段，市場進入了淘汰賽(sai)階段。

2、大(da)(da)規(gui)模(mo)的(de)(de)(de)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)車(che)普及帶來了電(dian)(dian)動車(che)充(chong)電(dian)(dian)難與能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)鏈的(de)(de)(de)轉型陣痛。新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)汽車(che)大(da)(da)規(gui)模(mo)的(de)(de)(de)快(kuai)速(su)普及超出了電(dian)(dian)力(li)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)預期，城市配電(dian)(dian)網的(de)(de)(de)負荷壓力(li)大(da)(da)，轉型有序充(chong)電(dian)(dian)和(he)車(che)網互動的(de)(de)(de)挑(tiao)戰(zhan)多。石化行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)也(ye)面(mian)臨著燃(ran)油供應量在減(jian)少，不熟悉(xi)的(de)(de)(de)快(kuai)充(chong)與快(kuai)換需求急(ji)劇增加，相對熟悉(xi)的(de)(de)(de)氫燃(ran)料業(ye)(ye)務發展(zhan)遲緩三重挑(tiao)戰(zhan)。我們新(xin)發展(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)充(chong)換電(dian)(dian)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)鏈商(shang)業(ye)(ye)模(mo)式還不成熟，標(biao)準化、規(gui)范化程度(du)還不高，急(ji)需確定新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)戰(zhan)略定位。最后，新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)汽車(che)與光伏等新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)大(da)(da)發展(zhan)倒逼能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)轉型，但能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)市場化改革(ge)仍(reng)然任(ren)重道遠。

3、電池(chi)(chi)鋰價波(bo)動(dong)與電池(chi)(chi)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)的(de)轉型陣痛。借助電動(dong)交(jiao)通、儲能等多(duo)(duo)個風口，電池(chi)(chi)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)突(tu)飛猛進(jin)，但鋰價波(bo)動(dong)、產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)膨脹、競爭加(jia)劇(ju)、業(ye)(ye)(ye)績不穩。隨著對電池(chi)(chi)的(de)認識加(jia)深，更多(duo)(duo)的(de)整(zheng)(zheng)車企業(ye)(ye)(ye)進(jin)入電池(chi)(chi)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)。電池(chi)(chi)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)跟整(zheng)(zheng)車產(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)的(de)結構性矛盾(dun)在加(jia)劇(ju)。中長期看，車用電池(chi)(chi)雖然有儲能等其他行業(ye)(ye)(ye)應用，但是車用還(huan)會占到70%，儲能占整(zheng)(zheng)個電池(chi)(chi)產(chan)(chan)量的(de)百分之(zhi)十幾。所以如何優化電池(chi)(chi)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)定位，是定位成新能源企業(ye)(ye)(ye)，還(huan)是定為汽車的(de)零(ling)部件商要做出選擇。企業(ye)(ye)(ye)定位和創新商業(ye)(ye)(ye)模式成為當務(wu)之(zhi)急。

針對(dui)深度轉型(xing)陣痛期的三條發展(zhan)路(lu)徑

第一(yi)，深(shen)化電動化，實行EV和PHEV的雙輪驅動。

大家知道，汽車(che)全(quan)產業(ye)鏈轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)汽車(che)大約還(huan)需要10年(nian)左右，所以我(wo)們(men)(men)還(huan)要繼續(xu)(xu)過渡(du)與(yu)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)并(bing)行互動(dong)(dong)，深(shen)入(ru)推進純(chun)(chun)電(dian)驅動(dong)(dong)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)戰(zhan)略(lve)。比亞迪去(qu)年(nian)成功(gong)轉(zhuan)(zhuan)型(xing)為全(quan)部生產新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)汽車(che)，它去(qu)年(nian)純(chun)(chun)電(dian)動(dong)(dong)和插電(dian)各占一半，總共(gong)186萬輛，異軍突(tu)起，而且全(quan)面盈利(li)。所以借鑒他們(men)(men)成功(gong)的(de)(de)經驗，就是(shi)要推行雙輪(lun)戰(zhan)略(lve)。雙輪(lun)戰(zhan)略(lve)有(you)利(li)于汽車(che)全(quan)產業(ye)鏈的(de)(de)平穩過渡(du)，緩解汽車(che)行業(ye)電(dian)動(dong)(dong)車(che)和燃油車(che)之間的(de)(de)結構性矛盾，因為我(wo)們(men)(men)的(de)(de)發動(dong)(dong)機還(huan)可以繼續(xu)(xu)用。另外，雙輪(lun)戰(zhan)略(lve)有(you)也有(you)利(li)于降低(di)車(che)輛的(de)(de)平均(jun)電(dian)池裝(zhuang)機量，可以平抑(yi)鋰(li)價波動(dong)(dong)，緩解電(dian)池產業(ye)與(yu)整(zheng)車(che)產業(ye)的(de)(de)結構性矛盾。

常規混(hun)(hun)(hun)(hun)合(he)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力高潮已經(jing)過去，隨著電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)性能的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)提升，現在(zai)大多(duo)數都(dou)(dou)轉型插(cha)(cha)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)混(hun)(hun)(hun)(hun)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)。插(cha)(cha)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)混(hun)(hun)(hun)(hun)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)有兩種(zhong)，國(guo)外的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)插(cha)(cha)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)混(hun)(hun)(hun)(hun)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)一般裝(zhuang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)比(bi)較少，叫(jiao)混(hun)(hun)(hun)(hun)合(he)型插(cha)(cha)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)混(hun)(hun)(hun)(hun)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)。中國(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)技術(shu)特色(se)是(shi)(shi)純(chun)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)型插(cha)(cha)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)混(hun)(hun)(hun)(hun)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)裝(zhuang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)比(bi)較多(duo)，因(yin)為我(wo)們(men)國(guo)家剛開始制定(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)標準就是(shi)(shi)50公里純(chun)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)里程(cheng)，國(guo)外的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)混(hun)(hun)(hun)(hun)合(he)型插(cha)(cha)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)混(hun)(hun)(hun)(hun)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)一般就是(shi)(shi)幾公里到十幾公里，我(wo)們(men)上來(lai)就是(shi)(shi)50公里，現在(zai)都(dou)(dou)到100公里以(yi)(yi)上了。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)裝(zhuang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)越多(duo)結構(gou)就會越簡單，所以(yi)(yi)做車的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)難度反而下(xia)降(jiang)了，這其中我(wo)們(men)經(jing)常說的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)程(cheng)式(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)車實(shi)際是(shi)(shi)串(chuan)聯(lian)型的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)純(chun)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)式(shi)插(cha)(cha)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)混(hun)(hun)(hun)(hun)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)。我(wo)們(men)還(huan)有并聯(lian)式(shi)插(cha)(cha)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)混(hun)(hun)(hun)(hun)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)、混(hun)(hun)(hun)(hun)聯(lian)式(shi)插(cha)(cha)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)混(hun)(hun)(hun)(hun)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)。從市場營銷的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)角度，增(zeng)程(cheng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)更容易被消費者接受，所以(yi)(yi)插(cha)(cha)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)混(hun)(hun)(hun)(hun)合(he)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力這個(ge)概念一直(zhi)沒有普及(ji)。

增程式電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)車(che)是跟(gen)純(chun)電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)更(geng)接近(jin)的(de)(de)一種(zhong)車(che)型，插(cha)電(dian)(dian)(dian)混(hun)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)基本上是從(cong)燃油車(che)發(fa)展(zhan)過來的(de)(de)。如果有(you)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)時候發(fa)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)機(ji)不(bu)(bu)啟動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)，這(zhe)叫純(chun)電(dian)(dian)(dian)插(cha)混(hun)。混(hun)合(he)型插(cha)電(dian)(dian)(dian)混(hun)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)是有(you)電(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)時候發(fa)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)機(ji)隨時可(ke)以啟動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)，因為電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)裝的(de)(de)很少，功率不(bu)(bu)夠，只要車(che)輛加速，發(fa)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)機(ji)立即起來，技(ji)術難度更(geng)高。但是當電(dian)(dian)(dian)量下降到百分(fen)之二三十，就要進入混(hun)合(he)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力狀態，可(ke)以是串聯(lian)、并(bing)聯(lian)、或者混(hun)聯(lian)，這(zhe)個混(hun)合(he)狀態跟(gen)常規(gui)(gui)的(de)(de)混(hun)合(he)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力車(che)并(bing)沒有(you)差別。所以我們(men)一般說(shuo)純(chun)電(dian)(dian)(dian)型插(cha)電(dian)(dian)(dian)混(hun)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)是城區(qu)短途用電(dian)(dian)(dian)、長(chang)(chang)途高速用油，這(zhe)也(ye)是王傳(chuan)(chuan)福(fu)董事長(chang)(chang)對消費者一個很好的(de)(de)宣傳(chuan)(chuan)。因為我們(men)平時跑長(chang)(chang)途并(bing)不(bu)(bu)多，都是城里(li)短途通(tong)勤開，基本上是純(chun)電(dian)(dian)(dian)，但是混(hun)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)部(bu)分(fen)就區(qu)分(fen)了增程電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)和常規(gui)(gui)插(cha)電(dian)(dian)(dian)混(hun)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)這(zhe)兩(liang)種(zhong)。

現在(zai)插電(dian)(dian)混動(dong)一(yi)般(ban)用的(de)(de)(de)是(shi)串(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)并(bing)(bing)聯(lian)(lian)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)，比如(ru)(ru)比亞迪的(de)(de)(de)超級(ji)混動(dong)，用的(de)(de)(de)是(shi)這(zhe)個串(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)并(bing)(bing)聯(lian)(lian)，最(zui)早(zao)是(shi)由本田提(ti)出的(de)(de)(de)方案(an)(an)，這(zhe)種方案(an)(an)目(mu)前應(ying)該說是(shi)全球對混合(he)(he)動(dong)力(li)(li)結(jie)(jie)構(gou)的(de)(de)(de)共識，因為這(zhe)種方案(an)(an)非常簡(jian)(jian)單，不需要像豐田普(pu)銳斯(si)和通(tong)用沃(wo)蘭多(duo)混合(he)(he)動(dong)力(li)(li)采用的(de)(de)(de)復雜(za)行星齒(chi)輪結(jie)(jie)構(gou)，但功(gong)(gong)能(neng)是(shi)一(yi)樣的(de)(de)(de)，既可(ke)以(yi)串(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)聯(lian)(lian)、也(ye)可(ke)以(yi)并(bing)(bing)聯(lian)(lian)，還(huan)可(ke)以(yi)發動(dong)機直驅。增(zeng)程(cheng)電(dian)(dian)動(dong)是(shi)這(zhe)種結(jie)(jie)構(gou)的(de)(de)(de)一(yi)種簡(jian)(jian)化，只有串(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)聯(lian)(lian)，或者(zhe)說串(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)并(bing)(bing)聯(lian)(lian)的(de)(de)(de)插電(dian)(dian)混動(dong)包含了增(zeng)程(cheng)電(dian)(dian)動(dong)的(de)(de)(de)功(gong)(gong)能(neng)，但是(shi)它比增(zeng)程(cheng)電(dian)(dian)動(dong)的(de)(de)(de)功(gong)(gong)能(neng)更加豐富，因此它的(de)(de)(de)油(you)耗(hao)(hao)一(yi)般(ban)是(shi)更低的(de)(de)(de)。如(ru)(ru)果是(shi)增(zeng)程(cheng)電(dian)(dian)動(dong)，在(zai)高速公(gong)路油(you)耗(hao)(hao)偏高。高速公(gong)路如(ru)(ru)果沒有電(dian)(dian)，就是(shi)串(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)聯(lian)(lian)混合(he)(he)動(dong)力(li)(li)，而(er)串(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)聯(lian)(lian)混合(he)(he)動(dong)力(li)(li)在(zai)高速公(gong)路油(you)耗(hao)(hao)偏高，串(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)(chuan)并(bing)(bing)聯(lian)(lian)混合(he)(he)動(dong)力(li)(li)在(zai)高速公(gong)路一(yi)般(ban)是(shi)并(bing)(bing)聯(lian)(lian)驅動(dong)或者(zhe)直驅，直驅這(zhe)個時(shi)候效(xiao)率是(shi)最(zui)高的(de)(de)(de)，因為沒有經過任何的(de)(de)(de)中間轉換環節的(de)(de)(de)能(neng)量損失。

近中(zhong)期看，電(dian)動車價格成(cheng)本偏(pian)高、電(dian)池(chi)成(cheng)本也偏(pian)高、補貼又在下降，所以(yi)未來5～10年(nian)(nian)插電(dian)混動和增程電(dian)動的(de)(de)占(zhan)比(bi)會(hui)從去年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)22%逐步提升到30%～40%，甚至(zhi)接(jie)近50%都是(shi)(shi)可(ke)能的(de)(de)，其中(zhong)占(zhan)比(bi)最高的(de)(de)就(jiu)是(shi)(shi)中(zhong)級主(zhu)流轎車，還(huan)(huan)有大(da)型SUV。但是(shi)(shi)中(zhong)長期看，電(dian)池(chi)商(shang)業模式(shi)創新(xin)、技(ji)術創新(xin)的(de)(de)空間還(huan)(huan)很大(da)，電(dian)池(chi)購(gou)置和使用的(de)(de)綜合成(cheng)本還(huan)(huan)會(hui)繼續下降，純電(dian)動的(de)(de)優勢會(hui)越(yue)來越(yue)明顯。我個(ge)人的(de)(de)判斷(duan)是(shi)(shi)，2030年(nian)(nian)之后(hou)，這兩種的(de)(de)占(zhan)比(bi)會(hui)逐步降低。

第二，面向低碳化(hua)，加快能(neng)源基(ji)礎設施轉型。

今年歐(ou)盟通過協議，將在2035年停售新的燃油(you)(you)(you)轎車和(he)小(xiao)貨車，也(ye)包(bao)含插(cha)電(dian)(dian)混動(dong)和(he)增程(cheng)電(dian)(dian)動(dong)。由于(yu)德國汽車業的反對(dui)，歐(ou)盟同(tong)意就(jiu)不禁售使用綠電(dian)(dian)合成燃料的車型進行討(tao)論。這就(jiu)提出了新的問題：燃油(you)(you)(you)車將來是(shi)(shi)不是(shi)(shi)全面從(cong)化石能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)汽柴油(you)(you)(you)車轉(zhuan)型為綠電(dian)(dian)合成的汽油(you)(you)(you)柴油(you)(you)(you)車呢？能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)基礎(chu)設施轉(zhuan)型的問題就(jiu)重(zhong)新提起。

新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)汽(qi)車(che)(che)和新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)革命緊密相連(lian)、相互(hu)促進。新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)汽(qi)車(che)(che)真正要成為新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)汽(qi)車(che)(che)就(jiu)得(de)用(yong)綠(lv)電(dian)(dian)(dian)，綠(lv)電(dian)(dian)(dian)是(shi)(shi)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)來(lai)(lai)的(de)(de)。而新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)要發(fa)展占(zhan)比(bi)很高需(xu)要儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)，儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)又需(xu)要我們(men)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)汽(qi)車(che)(che)的(de)(de)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)和氫(qing)能(neng)(neng)(neng)，所以彼此是(shi)(shi)相關聯的(de)(de)。目前新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)發(fa)展的(de)(de)瓶頸就(jiu)是(shi)(shi)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)。儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)從未來(lai)(lai)來(lai)(lai)看，基于成本的(de)(de)競爭(zheng)性比(bi)較，最終是(shi)(shi)綠(lv)氫(qing)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)和電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)，這是(shi)(shi)全球共識。綠(lv)氫(qing)是(shi)(shi)長(chang)周(zhou)期、大規模的(de)(de)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)方式，比(bi)如說我們(men)現(xian)在的(de)(de)煤(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)廠不(bu)用(yong)拆(chai)，只(zhi)需(xu)要把(ba)煤(mei)燃(ran)料慢(man)慢(man)變成氫(qing)。現(xian)在我國(guo)新(xin)型(xing)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)94%都(dou)是(shi)(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)，我們(men)說儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)是(shi)(shi)大產業(ye)，實際目前就(jiu)是(shi)(shi)動(dong)力電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)產業(ye)，因為94%都(dou)是(shi)(shi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)。

當然，新能源電(dian)(dian)(dian)力也可以(yi)(yi)做(zuo)液體(ti)燃料(liao)，綠電(dian)(dian)(dian)制氫(qing)，再從(cong)空(kong)氣(qi)中(zhong)捕(bu)捉(zhuo)二(er)氧化碳(tan)(tan)(tan)，氫(qing)和(he)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)進行合成，就(jiu)可以(yi)(yi)制成甲醇、汽油(you)、柴油(you)、煤油(you)。所以(yi)(yi)從(cong)綠電(dian)(dian)(dian)可以(yi)(yi)直接搞(gao)純電(dian)(dian)(dian)動(dong)汽車(che)，也可以(yi)(yi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)解水制氫(qing)搞(gao)燃料(liao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池汽車(che)，也可以(yi)(yi)在(zai)氫(qing)的基(ji)礎(chu)上再從(cong)大(da)氣(qi)捕(bu)捉(zhuo)二(er)氧化碳(tan)(tan)(tan)做(zuo)醇、汽、柴油(you)搞(gao)內(nei)燃機汽車(che)，內(nei)燃機燃燒之后再把碳(tan)(tan)(tan)排到(dao)大(da)氣(qi)中(zhong)，這樣(yang)讓碳(tan)(tan)(tan)循環不增加碳(tan)(tan)(tan)，所以(yi)(yi)這也是(shi)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)中(zhong)和(he)。

現在(zai)有人說(shuo)電(dian)動(dong)車(che)(che)永遠趕不上油車(che)(che)，他是(shi)從能(neng)量(liang)(liang)密度來講的(de)。但(dan)是(shi)我(wo)們要(yao)看效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)和功能(neng)。儲能(neng)功能(neng)可以(yi)產生(sheng)附加效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)益，效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)高低決定了成本(ben)。我(wo)們來看一下(xia)殼牌公司對轎車(che)(che)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)的(de)研究結論，如果從可再生(sheng)能(neng)源發電(dian)一直到車(che)(che)輪(lun)這個能(neng)量(liang)(liang)傳遞鏈看，純電(dian)動(dong)車(che)(che)的(de)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)是(shi)77%，燃(ran)料電(dian)池車(che)(che)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)是(shi)30%，電(dian)合成燃(ran)料內燃(ran)機汽(qi)車(che)(che)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)是(shi)13%。為什么(me)會(hui)差(cha)這么(me)多？因為我(wo)們要(yao)捕捉碳、還要(yao)合成，這個地方的(de)能(neng)耗要(yao)損失(shi)44%。全(quan)鏈條(tiao)效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)來看，電(dian)動(dong)車(che)(che)是(shi)電(dian)合成燃(ran)料內燃(ran)機汽(qi)車(che)(che)的(de)6倍(bei)，在(zai)車(che)(che)上也(ye)高4倍(bei)。所以(yi)電(dian)動(dong)車(che)(che)不需要(yao)帶那么(me)多能(neng)量(liang)(liang)，四分之一就夠了。所以(yi)從效(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)角度看，可以(yi)說(shuo)燃(ran)油車(che)(che)永遠無(wu)法跟電(dian)動(dong)車(che)(che)競爭。

還有一個問(wen)題(ti)經常容易引起爭(zheng)議(yi)，電(dian)(dian)動車補(bu)電(dian)(dian)太慢，這就(jiu)要解決快速補(bu)電(dian)(dian)的問(wen)題(ti)。

首先，轎車(che)超級充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)。現(xian)(xian)在超充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)池(chi)只需(xu)要(yao)最高(gao)(gao)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)倍(bei)率4C就(jiu)可以(yi)了，我們不需(xu)要(yao)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)滿電(dian)，只需(xu)要(yao)快(kuai)速補(bu)電(dian)。最高(gao)(gao)4C，350千瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)，理論上充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)5分鐘可以(yi)對續(xu)航600公里(li)的電(dian)動汽車(che)補(bu)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)200公里(li)里(li)程，也就(jiu)是充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)1/3。另外，高(gao)(gao)壓(ya)平臺現(xian)(xian)在各廠(chang)都(dou)開(kai)始干了，350千瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)的充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)系統也已經突破。現(xian)(xian)在已經開(kai)始了超充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)的試運行(xing)，標(biao)準已經發布。我們現(xian)(xian)在要(yao)逐步(bu)從快(kuai)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)向(xiang)超充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)過渡，就(jiu)是從100多千瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)的充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)到(dao)350千瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)的充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)，當然這個過渡過程需(xu)要(yao)一段時間(jian)，在過渡過程中間(jian)還可以(yi)繼續(xu)使用快(kuai)充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)，用兩把槍來充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)，就(jiu)是充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)電(dian)功率加倍(bei)，甚(shen)至(zhi)三把槍充(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)(chong)也可以(yi)。